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It turns out Mahomes needed to average 3.8 passin
29.12.2018, 05:03 AM
Beitrag: #1
It turns out Mahomes needed to average 3.8 passin
Welcome to the Week 9 edition of chiefStats!Last week , we took a moment to check in on Patrick Mahomes and his progress toward beating Peyton Manning’s 55 passing-touchdown record set in 2013.g touchdowns per game to pass Manning at the end of the year.Mahomes did indeed get the four touchdowns he needed to maintain his pace to pass Manning. Mahomes’ progress towards the record will be something I’ll keep my eyes on as the season progresses.This week, the Chiefs face a Browns team which is undergoing some staff turnover. Here is this week’s Browns overview, courtesy of Bill Connelly’s advanced stats guide:1. Interim coachesThe biggest story leading into the Browns/Chiefs game is that Hue Jackson, and Todd Haley were both fired from the Browns the week leading up to the game. This leaves Gregg Williams as the interim head coach.Naturally, the question arose — How well do interim coaches do in their first game?So, the average team with an interim head coach actually improves toward the end of the season. This actually works to the Chiefs’ disadvantage.I believe the spike in win percentage during the first game for an interim head coach is due to the level of unpredictability a new coach can bring into a game. The Chiefs could see anything on Sunday, and they won’t know what Williams has planned until they play the game.Another thing about these first games for interim head coaches is that the scores tended to swing wildly for both sides.2. Turnover taleEarly in the season, a lot of fans thought the Browns defense was on a torrid pace in terms of forcing turnovers. A lot of fans thought that pace would slow, but the Browns have continued to force turnovers.If someone were to ask me how I thought the Chiefs could lose to the Browns, one answer I’d give is that the Chiefs somehow turned the ball over a ton.It’s not typical for an Andy Reid team to commit a ton of turnovers or interceptions (note, this is an old tweet, but it’s still applicable):Turnovers could become a problem in the Chiefs/Browns game, but given Reid’s history with taking care of the ball, I don’t think the Chiefs choke the game away by coughing up the ball.However, I would be surprised if Mahomes left this game without throwing at least one interception.3. Browns shouldn’t pass the ballI really don’t see any reason the Browns should pass the ball much on Sunday.If the Browns choose to pass the ball, they’re playing to one of the Chiefs’ strengths and one of the Browns’ weaknesses.On the flip side, the Browns have a clear advantage in the run game.Every single sign leading up to this game points to the Browns needing to run the ball if they want to have any success. Gregg Williams is a defensive-minded coach, and running the ball will help his defense.I will be shocked if the Browns don’t run the ball 20-plus times on Sunday. If the Browns choose to pass the ball more frequently, they’ll be playing right into the Chiefs strength while playing from their weakness.4. Third downOffensively, the Browns have had issues (more on that later.)The Chiefs defense should have a chance to improve their third-down numbers on Sunday — specifically on third and medium to long.The Browns haven’t been too bad on third down so far this season, with their obvious strengths coming in third-and-short or third-and-long situations.The Chiefs have been strong in third-and-long and third-and-medium situations, but have been average in third-and-short situations.Long story short, the Chiefs defense should do well on third down, and the Chiefs offense should do well in third-and-medium situations. Third-and-short and long situations could be a challenge for the Chiefs offense on Sunday given the Browns’ stats.5. Browns offenseThe Browns offense is not playing well in 2018.This week should be an opportunity for the Chiefs defense to improve.Currently, the Chiefs defense is allowing 6.3 yards per play, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. However, if you’ve been paying attention to the Chiefs defense over the past several weeks they have been slowly improving.This week, against the Browns’ 4.9 yards-per-play offense is another opportunity for the Chiefs defense to improve.Will the Chiefs defense take a step forward on Sunday and continue their defensive improvement? If I had to make a bet, my answer would be yes. The Kansas City Chiefs break huddle and line up in a traditional formation: Patrick Mahomes settles under center, Kareem Hunt is in the backfield, tight end Travis Kelce joins wide receiver Sammy Watkins on the right side , and Tyreek Hill and Demarcus Robinson head to the left.Then, from a defensive perspective, all hell breaks loose.Mahomes is suddenly dropping into the shotgun, careful he doesn't run into Hunt, who has moved from the left side to the right. Hill has run all the way across the field and lined up on the right, just as Kelce has raced in the other direction to line up on the left.The defense thought it had everyone covered. Now, mismatches abound as linebackers try to cover Kelce and safeties are forced to match up with the Chiefs' speedy wide receivers.That play against Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago wasn't just a gimmick. That's standard stuff in the Chiefs' basic offense, a seemingly seamless melding of Andy Reid's old-school West Coast system and the new-school spread offenses that have changed the college game."That play calling was something I've never seen before," said Jacksonville safety Tashaun Gipson, whose top-ranked defense was torched in a 30-14 loss at Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday."I've played Andy Reid, and maybe it was the Browns or it was Jacksonville 2016, and he didn't pull out all the stops," Gipson said. "But this game plan, man, and I can't say it enough 鈥?and again, I'm not trying to discredit any guys over there 鈥?but I've never seen a team do that to us consistently."In fact, Gipson said, "they had their way with us all game."They've had their way with just about everybody the first five weeks, piling up a franchise-record 175 points. Mahomes has already thrown for 1,513 yards, shattering the Chiefs mark for five games, and a 300-yard passing game at New England on Sunday would give him a team-record five straight.Kansas City (5-0) has scored at least 30 points in each of its games."If you try to play zone coverage against them, they've got the guys to beat zone. They have the guys to beat man. So you have to pick your poison," Gipson said. "We came here with all this hype, talking about how good we are as a defense, myself included, and we got drug out there. Straight drug."What the Chiefs are doing this season is hardly a flash-in-the-pan attack, though. It's the culmination of years of tinkering, beginning with Brad Childress' work as "spread game analyst" and incorporating bits of the college-style spread attack to what the Chiefs were doing last season.But while Alex Smith could pull off run-pass options, or do things in the quarterback-run game, it wasn't a perfect fit. That came when Mahomes took over as the starter this season.Mahomes is a product of the Air Raid system , basically a spread offense on steroids. He is accustomed to a flood of targets all over the field, quickly identifying where the matchup problems give the offense an advantage, and delivering the ball so that his playmakers can make things happen.Plus, Mahomes has the arm strength to make any throw on the field."He's not afraid to let it loose," Broncos offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave said. "When you have the arm strength that he has, he can fit the ball into those small windows."Most of the time, though, the Chiefs are able to give him garage doors.That's because they have the personnel to make all those creative formations work. Kelce is athletic enough to line up anywhere on the field, Hunt has excellent hands for a running back, and Hill and Watkins have the speed to beat anyone in a one-on-one matchup.So, for example, the Chiefs can line up without anyone in the backfield, forcing defenses to change their personnel and alignment. Then the motion games begin, and Kelce or Hill or someone else could end up in the backfield, creating confusion and mismatches."There's not much we can do once we make our call and (Mahomes) comes out in his formation," Broncos coach Vance Joseph said. "Once he goes empty, he knows what he's got. That makes it tough."Or downright impossible, it sometimes seems."Watching Andy for a long time, he always has some neat, cool things," 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. "I don't know where they come from. He's in there looking up a lot of stuff because they do some unusual things. Sometimes I'm predicting it came from a high school team, maybe a college team. They know how to spread the field. They know how to run all those jet sweeps and do all the RPOs."Shanahan said the foundation remains the West Coast offense, and the Chiefs are still capable of beating teams with basic stuff. Just look at how they've put away games late in the fourth quarter, when they've leaned on Hunt and some old-fashioned, smash-mouth football.But none of that catches people's attention like the flashy stuff."Over these last four years or so, they've really added an element of the misdirection and stuff. It's been an issue, not just because of the plays, but the people with the plays," Shanahan said. "They have the speed at every angle to run those things and really put defenses in a bind."NOTES: SS Eric Berry (heel), FS Eric Murray (ankle) and OLBs Justin Houston (hamstring) and Tanoh Kpassagnon (ankle) remained out of practice Thursday. RB Spencer Ware was out for a personal matter.
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